How to Know if You’re Ovulating? What Most Women Don't Know About Their Fertility
Fertility awareness and reproductive health
Understanding your ovulation cycle
Many women assume they are ovulating just because they get regular periods but this isn't always true. Ovulation is essential for conception and overall hormonal health, yet up to 40% of infertility cases in women stem from ovulation problems (25% in the US).
Also, many women assume ovulation happens on Day 14 of their cycle, but research and real-life tracking show this is rarely accurate. Understanding your actual ovulation timing is essential for fertility awareness, conception, and reproductive health. This guide will break down why the Day 14 rule is a myth, what research tells us about cycle variability, and how you can track your fertile window accurately.
Let’s answer the most common questions to help you understand what's really going on inside your cycle.
❓ What is the number 1 cause of infertility for women?
The leading cause of infertility in women is ovulatory dysfunction, meaning problems with releasing eggs regularly. Ovulatory dysfunction accounts for roughly 25 to 40% of female infertility cases worldwide. Ovulatory disorders are one of the three most common causes of infertility in the US, alongside male factor, tubal disease, and unexplained infertility.
Within this group, Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) is the most common cause. PCOS affects about 6 to 13% of women of reproductive age globally and often leads to irregular or absent ovulation.
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❓ Are lack of ovulation and PCOS the same? Do they go together?
Not exactly. Both “PCOS” and “anovulation” are central to female infertility, but they are not the same thing. Anovulation (lack of ovulation) is the main direct cause of female infertility, and PCOS is the most common underlying condition that causes anovulation. In other words, PCOS is the leading cause of anovulatory infertility.
Lack of ovulation (anovulation) means you are not releasing an egg in a cycle.
PCOS is a specific hormonal disorder and the most common reason for ovulatory dysfunction, responsible for about 70% of anovulation cases, but not all anovulation is due to PCOS.
Other causes of ovulatory problems include thyroid issues, stress, high prolactin levels, low body weight, and early ovarian aging.
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❓ Do all women know if they are ovulating? Can you have regular periods and still not ovulate or have PCOS?
No, many women don't realize they are not ovulating. You can have regular bleeding and still not ovulate. This is called anovulatory bleeding.
Also, many women with "silent PCOS" have no obvious symptoms like acne or excess hair growth and may even have regular periods, yet they do not ovulate consistently.
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❓ If you have a lack of ovulation, do you automatically have PCOS?
No. While PCOS is the most frequent cause, not all ovulation issues are caused by PCOS. Other causes include thyroid dysfunction, stress, low body weight, hormonal imbalances, or diminished ovarian reserve.
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❓ How common is "silent PCOS" or undiagnosed lack of ovulation?
Studies suggest that 50–70% of women with PCOS remain undiagnosed, often because they don't have classic symptoms like irregular periods or obvious signs of high androgens.
More broadly, chronic anovulation affects a significant portion of reproductive-age women, though occasional anovulatory cycles can happen to most women at some point. Many women may have irregular or absent ovulation without realizing it, especially if they still experience some form of bleeding.
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❓ How do you know if you're not ovulating if everything else looks normal? What's the easiest way to find out?
There are several ways to track and confirm ovulation:
Hormone-based monitors (e.g., Proov, Mira, Inito, Oova) – Detect LH to predict ovulation and PdG to confirm that an egg was released.
Ovulation Predictor Kits (OPKs) – Detect the LH surge to predict ovulation, but cannot confirm egg release; may be misleading if ovulation is irregular.
Basal Body Temperature (BBT) tracking – Shows a post-ovulation temperature rise, confirming ovulation after it occurs.
Cervical mucus monitoring – Helps estimate fertile days; best used alongside other methods.
Progesterone blood tests – Done about 7 days after suspected ovulation; clinically confirms ovulation.
Ultrasound monitoring – Tracks follicle growth and egg release directly; usually done in clinics.
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❓ Can you ovulate some months and not others?
Yes, it's common to ovulate irregularly, for example, ovulating one cycle but missing the next. This can be due to stress, hormonal fluctuations, PCOS, age, or lifestyle factors.
That's why tracking ovulation over multiple cycles is important, especially if you're trying to conceive or want a clearer understanding of your reproductive health.
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❓ What about the other causes of female infertility besides ovulatory dysfunction?
If ovulation issues cause about 25–40% of infertility, the other causes include:
Tubal factors (blocked or damaged fallopian tubes) — 20–30%
Endometriosis — 10–15% of all infertility cases, though it affects 24–50% of women who have infertility
Uterine or cervical factors — 5–10%
Diminished ovarian reserve/age-related decline — 10–20%
Unexplained infertility (no identifiable cause despite testing) — 20–30%
Note these categories can overlap.
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❓ Does ovulation really happen on Day 14?
No, the idea that ovulation reliably occurs on Day 14 comes from older calendar-based methods that assumed everyone had a perfect 28-day cycle. Research shows this is rarely true and most women’s cycles are shorter or longer, and ovulation timing can shift from month to month, even within the same person. Using Day 14 as a rule of thumb can be very inaccurate.
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❓ How much do menstrual cycles actually vary?
Healthy cycles can range from about 21 to 37 days. The follicular phase (before ovulation) varies the most, which is why ovulation can occur earlier or later than traditional estimates. Only a minority of women ovulate on Day 14, even if their cycle averages 28 days. This variability is normal and expected.
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❓ What are the signs that I am ovulating?
Common indicators include:
Basal body temperature (BBT): Slight rise after ovulation.
Cervical mucus: Becomes clear, slippery, and egg-white–like near ovulation.
Cervical position: Softens and rises during ovulation.
Ovulation pain: Mild cramping in the middle of the cycle for some women.
Tracking several signs together is more accurate than relying on calendar predictions alone.
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❓ How can I track my fertile window accurately?
Chart multiple signs: BBT + cervical mucus + cervical position.
Use ovulation predictor kits (OPKs) to detect hormonal surges (see recommended brands below).
Consider fertility monitors or digital devices for more precise readings.
Using a combination of these methods respects your individual cycle variability and gives a much more accurate picture of your fertile days than simply counting from Day 1.
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❓ What ovulation tracking kits and monitors are recommended?
Confirmatory / Recommended Devices:
These predict your fertile window and confirm ovulation:
Proov Complete – Predicts ovulation (LH) and confirms egg release (PdG). No Wi‑Fi required. Offline tracking is accurate and minimizes wireless exposure, which could negatively impact fertility.
Mira – LH + estrogen to predict ovulation, PdG to confirm. Bluetooth only.
Inito – LH, estrogen, PdG for prediction + confirmation. Uses Wi‑Fi and Bluetooth.
Oova – LH + PdG tracking. Bluetooth only.
femSense – Temperature-based ovulation confirmation after it occurs. Bluetooth only.
Predictive / Less reliable devices:
These only detect LH surge and cannot confirm ovulation:
Wondfo, Pregmate, Easy@Home – LH strips, no Wi‑Fi.
Basic BBT thermometers – confirm ovulation after it happens but require manual charting.
Tip: Using multiple indicators (hormones + temperature + cervical mucus) gives the clearest picture of your fertile window.
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❓ Why does it matter if I track ovulation correctly?
Because your cycle and fertile window vary, relying on the “Day 14” rule can miss your most fertile days. Accurately tracking ovulation helps improve your chances of conception, understand your reproductive health, and identify possible issues if you’re not ovulating regularly.
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✅ Final takeaways:
Ovulatory dysfunction is the leading cause of female infertility, with PCOS being the most common culprit.
You can have regular periods but still not ovulate, and many women may not realize it.
Day 14 ovulation is a myth: most women do not ovulate exactly mid-cycle, and ovulation timing varies between and within individuals.
Cycle length varies naturally, especially the follicular phase, which is why calendar-based estimates alone are often inaccurate.
Tracking ovulation through multiple signs: basal body temperature, cervical mucus, cervical position, or ovulation predictor kits—gives the most accurate picture of your fertile window.
The fertile window shifts cycle to cycle, so tracking over multiple months provides more reliable insights.
The calculator is a starting point, but personal tracking or clinical testing is necessary for a precise understanding of your ovulation.
Other causes of female infertility include tubal factors, endometriosis, uterine or cervical issues, diminished ovarian reserve, and unexplained infertility. Male factor infertility accounts for 30–50% of cases.
Understanding your ovulation and fertile window is key to taking control of your reproductive health and making informed decisions when trying to conceive.
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Understanding ovulation is key to taking control of your reproductive health. If you’re curious about your cycle or suspect you might not be ovulating regularly, join the WOVA program to optimize your health and fertility and get personalized support.
References
Carson SA, Kallen AN. Diagnosis and management of infertility: a review. JAMA. 2021;326(1):65-76. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.4788
Bellver J, Rodríguez-Tabernero L, Robles A, et al. Polycystic ovary syndrome throughout a woman’s life. J Assist Reprod Genet. 2018;35(1):25-39. doi:10.1007/s10815-017-1076-6
Knochenhauer ES, Key TJ, Kahsar-Miller M, Waggoner W, Boots LR, Azziz R. A prospective study of the prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome in unselected women from the southeastern United States. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 1998;83(9):3078-3082. doi:10.1210/jcem.83.9.5090
van Anders SM, et al. Menstrual cycle variability and ovulation timing: evidence from [PMC8363181]. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2021;12:687541. doi:10.3389/fendo.2021.687541
